| Total US Households | a |
116,000,000.00 |
From US Census website |
| Households w/mortgage | b |
69,600,000.00 |
(a) times 60% |
| Households w/out mtg | c |
46,400,000.00 |
(a) times 40 % |
| Predicted foreclosures | d |
2,800,000.00 |
From Moody's economy.com |
| % Predicted foreclosures | 4.02% | (d) divided by (b) | |
| Total value of US mtgs | e |
11,000,000,000,000.00 |
|
| Avg value per mtg | f |
158,045.98 |
(e) divided by (b) |
| Predicted total loss | g |
1,000,000,000,000.00 |
analyst estimates |
| Conservative % loss on mtg per foreclosure | h |
50.00% | my estimate |
| Foreclosure % needed to reach $1 trillion loss | 18.18% | (g) divided by (h) divided by (e) |